A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Factors in Major Aviation Accidents

This paper forms part of a long term analysis to understand the causes of aviation accidents across US air space. The intention is to understand the role that organisational issues, human error, technical failures and environmental factors play in adverse events. This is important because the recommendations that are intended to avoid future mishaps are determined by the causes that are identified in accident and incident reports. We are also concerned to determine whether these causal factors have changed over time either as a consequence of changes in the aviation industry, such as the introduction of more advanced safety management practices, or as a result of changes in the way in which accidents are investigated. In previous work, we have identified patterns in the causes of aviation accidents between 1996 and 2004. This interval was chosen because the relevant reports were made available via the NTSB web site. In this paper, we extend our analysis to include all major US aviation accidents between 1976 and 1984. We also consider the most recent series of reports up to 2006. We conclude by identifying significant differences in the causes of these accidents across these different samples.